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WTI Crude Rises for Biggest Range in Q1 Season

  • DAR Wong
  • 1 April 2019

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that U.S. – China trade talk has been constructive but no details are released yet. The talk was held in Beijing in replacement for the Trump-Xi meet supposedly to be held in Mar-a-Largo.

The U.S. Bond yields has become inverted from 3-month debt to 10-year debt instruments, showing signs of a possible recession. Dow Jones benchmark slows down in growth value as investors move to become observant.

Housing prices in London fall at the fastest rate in a decade as BREXIT bites. The National house price index slid 3.8 percent in Q1 season of 2019 compared to same period a year ago. Current account dropped GBP23.7 billion in the final quarter of 2018 and slid on 3rd consecutive quarters.

The EU has agreed to extend the BREXIT to 22 May if the U.K. MPs approve to the agreement at end March. Otherwise, a continual impasse in U.K. Parliament will render the BREXIT on 12 April. So far, the U.K. Parliament has reached a political deadlock over BREXIT issue after the voting failed for a third time to support PM May on Friday.     

WTI Crude prices made biggest rise on quarterly season in first 3 months of January 2019. Supply cut has been reinforced by OPEC and Russia and the U.S. sanction on Iran and Venezuela. 

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY moved in tight range last week in mild uptrend. This week, we reckon the trend will be strongly resisted at 111.50 – 112.00 region in case of ascension. Technically speaking, the market is prone to fall if it could not clear above 112.00 in coming week. First support is expected at 110.00 level but falling beyond this benchmark will initiate a new selling trend.

EUR/USD traded in weak demand last week but the technical chart shows strong bargain-hunting forces at 1.1200 region. This week, we foresee a possibility to reverse the trend from this support area and begin a rebound. Range is expected to move from 112.00 – 114.00 region in mixed sentiment.

GBP/USD is still trapped in mixed sentiment due to BREXIT matter. This week, we forecast the range will be contained from 1.3000 – 1.3300 until it breaks beyond this constriction. There is no clue to the directional trend as traders still keep a close observation to the outcome of extension date. 

Gold prices revealed a strong engulf pattern on week-chart at close of Friday. This week, we expect the trend to be bearish but supported at USD1275 – USD1280 /oz region. In overall, the resistance emerges at USD1310 /pz and trend will thread from USD1275 – USD1305 /oz region. Traders can attempt to enter market from the extreme ends for short-term gains.

WTI Crude prices traded in small range last week while hovered around USD60 /barrel region. This week, we expect the market to ascend on higher probability as Dollar may fall. Upon rising, we maintain our view from USD58 – USD62 /barrel while prone on the ascension. Breaking above USD62 /barrel will trigger a new buying interest and aim at USD68 /barrel level.

Silver prices traded lower last week and near to USD15.00 /oz level. This week, we have identified strong support at USD14.80 – USD15.00 /oz region in case of drawdown. Market will probably bounce off this bottom area and move into consolidation. Sideways trend is expected at this phase and cap beneath USD15.50 /oz resistance.

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives slid last week as European Commission concluded Palm oil cultivation results in excessive deforestation and use of Palm as biofuel should phase out by 2030. Futures contract in June19 closed at RM2103 /MT. This week, we foresee the bears will drive lower and test RM2040 /MT area while resistance will act at RM2150 /MT. Breaking beneath RM2040 /MT support will test the next lower region at RM1970 /MT before buying interest emerges.     

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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