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American Payroll Adds 169,000 in March

  • DAR Wong
  • 8 April 2019

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. jobless claims ended 30 March was reported at 202,000 and lowest since 1969. Monthly non-farm payroll rose 196,000 in March and above consensus. Unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent in the same month.

 

U.S. President Trump cites the trade deal with China will reach an outcome in a month’s time after both parties agree to erase the trade conflict through negotiation.

 

U.K. parliament fails to find an alternative to resolve the BREXIT after third vote, hence they shall leave the EU bloc on 12 April unless PM May has another new option. On the other hand, PM May is collaborating with Opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn to beak the BREXIT deadlock and hope to extend the departure through EU officials.

 

Crude prices trade in firm demand after being bolstered by geopolitical risk in Libya and Venezuela. OPEC leaders express the opinion to ditch Dollar if U.S. implements NOPEC (No oil producing and exporting cartels act). Last week, media reported that Saudi Aramco has made USD111 billion gains in 2018, topping as the most profitable company in the world.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY traded higher last week after Dollar Index hovered at 97.00 benchmark. However, we have identified strong resistance at 112.00 level while the range is contained above 110.50 support. This week, we reckon the trend will be range bound but breaking beyond the aforementioned region needs to be controlled with risk management.

 

EUR/USD was trading in narrow range around 1.1200 last week with strong support. Technically, we expect the trend to rebound fast in case Dollar weakens in near future. This week, we forecast strong bargain-hunting will be laid at 1.1180 – 1.1200 region while recovery is likely to reach 1.1350 area.

 

GBP/USD has been contained from 1.3000 – 1.3200 range as the trend narrows into a potential flag formation on day-chart. There is no clue to the directional trend since the next movement will depend solely on fundamental outcome of BREXIT matter. We suggest traders should stay observant upon breakthrough beyond the trend before finding a new entry.

 

Gold prices have shown strong buying interest at USD1280 – USD1290 /oz last week despite Dollar Index (USDX) behaves in firm sentiment. This week, we predict the consolidation will continue in tight range from USD1280 – USD1295 /oz region amid mixed activity. Nevertheless, piercing above USD1295 /oz is initiate a new demand and likely recover to USD1310 /oz area.

 

WTI Crude prices closed at above USD63 /barrel on Friday as demand has been rising last week. Currently, the market support has emerged at USD60 /barrel and likely to push higher in coming weeks. Due to geopolitical risk in some oil producing countries and persistence of OPEC leaders in supply cut, the trend will probably range from USD61 – USD65 /barrel in gradual demand.

 

Silver prices hovered at USD15 /oz last week as bargain-hunters entered market. This week, we reckon the trend will stay sideways but support will be strong at USD14.90 /oz region. Overall range is expected from USD14.90 – USD15.20 /oz until the bulls pierce above the aforementioned resistance. Observe the Dollar Index (USDX) for a potential fall for lifting the precious metals.

 

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives rises due to increasing export demand amid lower inventory. Market has gone higher above our target resistance at RM2150 /MT in optimism. June futures contract settled at RM2221 /MT on Friday. This week, we foresee the bulls will climb higher until it encounters the resistance at RM2280 – RM2300 /MT region. Downside support has moved up to RM2180 /MT region.

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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