American Payroll Adds 169,000 in March
- 8 April 2019
Fundamental Outlook The U.S. jobless claims ended 30 March was reported at 202,000 and lowest since 1969. Monthly non-farm payroll rose 196,000 in March and above consensus. Unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent in the same month.
U.S. President Trump cites the trade deal with China will reach an outcome in a month’s time after both parties agree to erase the trade conflict through negotiation.
U.K. parliament fails to find an alternative to resolve the BREXIT after third vote, hence they shall leave the EU bloc on 12 April unless PM May has another new option. On the other hand, PM May is collaborating with Opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn to beak the BREXIT deadlock and hope to extend the departure through EU officials.
Crude prices trade in firm demand after being bolstered by geopolitical risk in Libya and Venezuela. OPEC leaders express the opinion to ditch Dollar if U.S. implements NOPEC (No oil producing and exporting cartels act). Last week, media reported that Saudi Aramco has made USD111 billion gains in 2018, topping as the most profitable company in the world.
Technical Forecast USD/JPY traded higher last week after Dollar Index hovered at 97.00 benchmark. However, we have identified strong resistance at 112.00 level while the range is contained above 110.50 support. This week, we reckon the trend will be range bound but breaking beyond the aforementioned region needs to be controlled with risk management.
EUR/USD was trading in narrow range around 1.1200 last week with strong support. Technically, we expect the trend to rebound fast in case Dollar weakens in near future. This week, we forecast strong bargain-hunting will be laid at 1.1180 – 1.1200 region while recovery is likely to reach 1.1350 area.
GBP/USD has been contained from 1.3000 – 1.3200 range as the trend narrows into a potential flag formation on day-chart. There is no clue to the directional trend since the next movement will depend solely on fundamental outcome of BREXIT matter. We suggest traders should stay observant upon breakthrough beyond the trend before finding a new entry.
Gold prices have shown strong buying interest at USD1280 – USD1290 /oz last week despite Dollar Index (USDX) behaves in firm sentiment. This week, we predict the consolidation will continue in tight range from USD1280 – USD1295 /oz region amid mixed activity. Nevertheless, piercing above USD1295 /oz is initiate a new demand and likely recover to USD1310 /oz area.
WTI Crude prices closed at above USD63 /barrel on Friday as demand has been rising last week. Currently, the market support has emerged at USD60 /barrel and likely to push higher in coming weeks. Due to geopolitical risk in some oil producing countries and persistence of OPEC leaders in supply cut, the trend will probably range from USD61 – USD65 /barrel in gradual demand.
Silver prices hovered at USD15 /oz last week as bargain-hunters entered market. This week, we reckon the trend will stay sideways but support will be strong at USD14.90 /oz region. Overall range is expected from USD14.90 – USD15.20 /oz until the bulls pierce above the aforementioned resistance. Observe the Dollar Index (USDX) for a potential fall for lifting the precious metals.
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives rises due to increasing export demand amid lower inventory. Market has gone higher above our target resistance at RM2150 /MT in optimism. June futures contract settled at RM2221 /MT on Friday. This week, we foresee the bulls will climb higher until it encounters the resistance at RM2280 – RM2300 /MT region. Downside support has moved up to RM2180 /MT region.
DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org