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Iran’s Military Leader Killed in Baghdad Airstrike

  • DAR Wong
  • 6 January 2020

MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 6 Jan 2020

 

Iran’s Military Leader Killed in Baghdad Airstrike

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. President Trump announces the phase one deal will be signed on 15 January in Whitehouse. He will plan to visit Beijing after that and follow up with phase two negotiation with Chinese leaders.

On Friday morning, Iraq national TV reported the key military General from Iran was killed in an airstrike by U.S. forces in Baghdad. Oil prices rose on Friday after the news released. Earlier this week, there was a bomb sabotage in U.S. Embassy situated in Iraq.

President Trump says the airstrike is to stop a war and not to start a war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cites the killing of General Soleimani will be paid off by those responsible for the acts. Market analysts comment the volatility oil prices may last longer than expected out of the Iran and U.S. dispute.

People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio onshore all Chinese banks by 50 bp with effect from 6 January. The rate cut is expected to free RMB 800 billion cash fund into the market. Shanghai stock has begun to climb after the news release.

Taiwan is preparing for the national polling on 11 January as concerns loom over China’s interference and Hong Kong civil protest. So far, China has remained silent and laments on maintaining no violence over Taiwan’s unity.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY fell last week after encountered the strong resistance at 109.50 – 109.80 region. Currently, the market trend is approaching the 107.80 support and probably will trade in narrow range from 107.80 – 108.80 region. However, beware of falling beneath 107.80 support and might plunge for another 100 pips this week.

EUR/USD encountered resistance at 1.1230 and turned down towards weekend as Dollar recovered slightly. This week, we foresee the range will be tight from 1.100 – 1.1200 region without clear direction. Currently, there is no much news on Euro movement and mainly owes to Dollar trend as catalyst.

GBP/USD topped off 1.3280 level and fell last week. Our projection remains unchanged on market movements staying within 1.2900 – 1.3200 region. We reckon the market movement will be swing but constrict within the aforementioned range until month end for BREXIT execution.

Gold prices was consolidating at USD1520 /oz during mid-week but jumped up to USD1552 /oz closing on Friday after Iran’s death of military General. This week, we reckon the yellow will be very volatile with uncertainty. Depending on the Dollar weakening or regaining strength, Gold prices may pierce above USD1560 /oz resistance and head up to USD1600 /oz level. Otherwise, the trend may thread sideways from USD1530 – USD1560 /oz region in mixed trading.

WTI Crude prices jumped to USD64 /barrel on Friday but settle slightly lower for the weekend. This week, we forecast the trend will stay firm and within USD 62 – USD64 /barrel range. In the event of new catalyst in market, the bulls might penetrate above USD64 /barrel and aim for USD68 /barrel target. Falling back beneath USD62 /barrel is a bad sign for bullish trend.

Silver prices have not risen much last week and stay resilient at USD18.20 /oz region. This week, we project the trend will stay in mixed trading and constrict within USD17.70 – USD18.20 /oz region. From the Gold/Silver ratio chart, we reckon the Silver is still inactive and yet to start the uptrend. However, risk control needs to be practiced in case the prices stretch beyond the aforementioned range.

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded over New Year season in small range but still maintained bullish sentiment. Buying interest remains at high level and likely to push the trend higher in coming week. March20 contract closed at RM3117 /MT on Friday. This week, we aim the support at RM3050 /MT in case of drawdown but shooting up to RM3200 /MT is highly possible.  

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.