JAKARTA. The prospect of the price of crude palm oil (CPO) this year seems to be getting slower. After being hampered by import policies from the European Union, now the RAM Rating rating agency has also cut the CPO price forecast for 2019.
Previously, on Monday (15/4) RAM Ratings announced a decline in the 2019 CPO price projection, from previously in the range of RM 2,300 - RM 2,500, to an average of RM 2,200 - RM 2,400 per ton.
Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Trade Point Futures analyst, said that the decision was taken because there was a production growth which eventually increased the supply of global CPO. In addition, the sentiment of trade war between the US and China has also become a concern of market participants.
"Forecast RAM Ratings also shows that the CPO market is sluggish. Including negative campaigns from the European Union, and this affects the export share in the future," Deddy explained to Kontan, Tuesday (4/16).
The sentiment that most dominates the CPO market going forward, according to him, is a negative campaign from the European Union. Moreover, technically, even though a few weeks ago CPO prices had strengthened, according to Deddy, it was not enough to maintain the level of CPO prices until the end of the year.
"For the June contract, prices are rolling weakly. Moreover, until now the market is still awaiting US trade negotiations with China. This means that this can be a negative sentiment for CPO, considering that China will increase demand for soybean oil to the US," he said
For this reason, Asia Trade Point Futures predicts that CPO prices will be in the range of RM 1,900 to RM 2,100 per ton by the end of the year. As for the momentum ahead of Ramadan which can generally drive CPO prices up, this year is not yet strong enough.
"Usually ahead of Ramadan prices start high, because there are purchases for supply. But in the last two weeks we see CPO is actually depressed," he said.
(Translated with Google Translate from https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/proyeksi-dipangkas-laju-harga-cpo-tahunini-makin-seret)
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